Am attempting to run a monte carlo simulation using numpy like so:
from numpy import random
btcpremiummean = -2.61
btcpremiumsd = 1.63
trialsize = 1000000
for x in range(trialsize):
btcpremium = random.normal(btcpremiummean, btcpremiumsd)
...
I derived the mean and standard deviations from backtests and am using them to generate random figures.
However, though the data fits within this normal distribution, the real-life btcpremium is not truly random; rather it's usually equal to or close to the previous btcpremium.
I can't think of how to how to change my code so that btcpremium values fit within the normal distribution currently used while being affected by previous data.
Thanks in advance.
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