Monte Carlo election battle simulation

Im very new to programming, I was thought java in an intense three week college prep course and am now studying software development.

In my data structures and algorithms lecture we were asked to write a program based on Monte Carlo Simulations and the Irish Election on Friday,

We have to calculate the probability that 3 specific candidates of the 6 will finish last in any order. The probabilities are gotten from converting odds that paddy power bookies have given.

I just have no idea where to start and how to go about it, all I have so far is

    import java.util.Random;
    import java.util.Scanner;

    public class election
    { 
     public static void main (String []args)
    {
      Scanner myscan = new Scanner(System.in);
      Random elect = new Random();
      Double probability;

      for(int i=1; i<10;i++)
      {
        probability=Math.Random();

        if(probability == 0.98)
         {
           System.out.println("Michael D.Higgins is 1st");
         }
        else if(probability == 0.038)
         {
          System.out.println("Sean Gallagher is 2nd");
         }
       else if(probability == 0.029)
         {
           System.out.println(" Peter Casey is 3rd");
         }
       else if(probability == 0.024)
         {
           System.out.println("Liadh Ni Riadh is 4th");
         }
      else if(probability == 0.007)
         {
           System.out.println("John Freeman is 5th");
         }
      else if(probability == 0.005)
        {
         System.out.println("Gavin Duffy is 5th");
        }
       }
      }
     }        

I realise this won't do as I want but I don't know where else to go, Sorry if this seems like a silly question but any and all help is greatly appreciated!!!! }