referring to this question:
"Suppose I roll a 4-sided die, then flip a fair coin a number of times corresponding to the die roll. Given that i got three heads on the coin flip, what is the probability the die score was a 4?"
In the answer it is explained that the result should be 2/3.
I wrote the following piece of code in Python 3:
import random
die=4
heads=3
die_max=4
tot=0
tot_die=0
for i in range(0,100000) :
die_val=random.randint(1,die_max)
heads_val=0
for j in range(0,die_val) :
heads_val+=random.randint(0,1)
if die_val==die :
tot_die+=1
if heads_val==heads and die_val==die :
tot+=1
print(tot/tot_die)
I expect it to output something around 0.66, but it actually computes around 0.25.
Am I poorly understanding Python or Bayes' theorem?
Aucun commentaire:
Enregistrer un commentaire